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Brazil boosts the dollar

How long can the run on the dollar continue? Last year’s dollar slump, with its attendant rise in commodity prices, ended when the market put paid to it. This time governments are attempting to slow it down. But it is not, as widely expected, the US government that is doing this. Instead, the Canadian dollar dropped sharply on Tuesday after the Bank of Canada issued a warning over the currency’s recent strength. Brazil’s government went further, imposing capital controls to stop the real gaining at the dollar’s expense. Other countries, it appears, have more to lose from a weak dollar than the US does.

Perhaps as a result, there was a day’s pause in the trade that has seen the dollar hit 14-month lows while oil, denominated in dollars, briefly hit $80 a barrel before falling. Brazil’s imposition of a 2 per cent tax on capital inflows, to both stocks and bonds, showed strong intent. This move brought the real, which has risen 54.5 per cent against the dollar since its nadir, down by 3.8 per cent. The Bovespa stock index, which has tripled since its low, fell 7.5 per cent in dollar terms at one point.

Brazil evidently fears that an overpriced real could endanger its recovery. Other exporters will be watching closely.

(Source: the Financial Times October 20- www.ft.com, adapted)